- Cryptocurrencies fell broadly despite a market-lifting Iran peace deal, as investors focused on a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance on inflation.
- The Fed left interest rates unchanged but signaled higher-for-longer borrowing costs, tightening financial conditions that typically weigh on risk assets like bitcoin and ether.
- Analysts expect bitcoin to remain rangebound between $60,000 and $70,000 absent a major catalyst, such as new U.S. crypto legislation or further U.S.-Iran de-escalation.
Crypto fell across the board on Thursday, shrugging off a signed Iran peace deal that lifted stocks, after the Federal Reserve held interest rates but made clear it is more worried about inflation than growth.
Bitcoin traded around $63,900, down 3% over 24 hours though still up 2% on the week, per CoinDesk data. The selling was broad. Ether fell 3.4% to $1,733, XRP dropped 3.9% to $1.17 and solana lost 3.6% to $71. Hyperliquid's HYPE, the standout gainer all week, fell hardest at 7.2% to $69, though it remains up about 28% over seven days. Tron was the lone major in the green, up 0.9%.
The driver was the Fed. It left rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, in line with expectations, but its updated projections pointed to higher inflation and a slower pace of future rate cuts, and some officials floated the possibility that rates may still need to rise.
It was the first decision under new Chairman Kevin Warsh, who said there had been rigorous debate before the vote and vowed the central bank would deliver price stability. A more hawkish Fed means tighter financial conditions, which tend to drain the liquidity that fuels risk assets like crypto.
Stocks took the week's news better, helped by a separate development. President Donald Trump signed an interim deal to end the war with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, putting the agreement into effect.
S&P 500 futures rose as much as 0.9% and Nasdaq futures gained 1.5%, while Brent crude fell toward $78 a barrel. Crypto did not catch that bid, a sign it is trading more on the Fed than on the geopolitical relief for now.
Analysts expect bitcoin to stay rangebound until a clearer catalyst arrives.
"We expect bitcoin to continue to trade in the $60,000 to $70,000 range in the coming weeks absent any major catalyst," said Gerry O'Shea, head of global market insights at Hashdex, naming the signing of the CLARITY Act, a crypto market-structure bill, into law or further US-Iran de-escalation as the kind of trigger that could break the range.
He added sentiment has been weak as IPOs and AI stocks pulled attention away from crypto, but expects capital to rotate back as institutional interest grows and regulation formalizes.
The price action looks like consolidation rather than capitulation. Bitcoin has held in the low $64,000s, which suggests the worst of the selling pressure may be easing, but buyers are cautious with a tighter Fed capping the upside.
