Is the Bitcoin Price Correction Really Over or Is This a Bear Market Trap?

Bitcoin price retests $70,000 for the second time in a week, sparking speculations among traders whether BTC is bottoming after a multi-month correction or is it a bear market trap?

BTC is currently moving in a narrow $64K-$70K range amid tailwinds including spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, the CLARITY Act progress, and improving on-chain signals. However, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East heightened inflation concerns and reduced the odds of a Fed rate cut, with the US dollar index (DXY) jumping to 98.72 on Tuesday.

What Caused Bitcoin Price to Hit $70,000?

Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and the broader crypto market rebounded immediately after the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data came in higher than expected. It slipped to 52.4 in February 2026 from 52.6 in January, but remained above market expectations of 51.8.

The reading signaled expansion in the manufacturing sector for the second consecutive month. New orders continued to increase, but at a slow pace as goods producers faced high prices and tariffs.

Crypto stocks like Strategy (MSTR), Marathon Digital (MARA), Coinbase (COIN), and Robinhood (HOOD) surged 5-7%. Moreover, Circle (CRCL) spiked 15% and Bitmine (BMNR) stock closed 7.48% higher at $20.40.

Prices have pulled back, with Bitcoin price currently trading at $68,306. Trading volume remained high amid uncertainty. Traders are awaiting Wednesday’s US ISM Services PMI and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment rate data for February.

Safe-haven demand continued to remain amid risks of further escalations in the US and Israeli war against Iran. US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth indicated that the U.S. is preparing for a significant ramp-up in attacks on Iran within the next 24 hours.

Bitcoin Price in Correction Mode and Possible Bear Market Trap, 10x Research Says

10x Research agreed that short-term opportunities are emerging. However, it recommends traders to stay anchored to the data to assess risk/reward and avoid confusion over temporary Bitcoin price rebounds with lasting regime shifts.

10x Research cited Circle stock trading idea, which recorded 55% return in less than 10 days despite the US-Iran war. While Bitcoin price and crypto stocks jumped amid long positions opening and spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, technical and on-chain data still signal a bear market.

Analyst CrediBULL Crypto pointed out similar conditions in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. Many marked the invasion as a local bottom after months of correction and Bitcoin price climbed 40% in a month. However, Bitcoin price correction continued after it.

On-Chain Data Signal Bear Market

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode highlighted that Bitcoin price correction stabilized as momentum and on-chain activity improved. However, derivatives traders still remain cautious and capital flows remain fragile despite easing selling pressure.

Spot indicators are rising, futures indicators are declining. Also, options are softening but holding in moderate conditions, and rising ETF indicators point to steady institutional interest.

On-chain signals are stabilising but Bitcoin Bull Score Index and Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator by CryptoQuant show bear market conditions. The indicator below 0 and below its 365-day moving average confirms a bear market, with further expectations of Bitcoin price crash.