The crypto market tumbled to the lowest levels in more than two weeks, with bitcoin BTC$66,710.26 dropping below $67,000 and ether (ETH) closing in on $2,000. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) lost 2.2% since midnight UTC, reaching its lowest since March 9.
The fall coincided with a drop in U.S. equities. Nasdaq 100 futures are now trading at 23,760, 10% below this year's high from January.
The risk-off atmosphere was spurred by rising oil prices and fears that the war in Iran would not de-escalate as quickly as many had hoped. Oil remains above $100 per barrel, stoking inflation concerns.
Sections of the altcoin market were harder hit on Friday, with the likes of ETHFI losing 6% since midnight. WLD, WIF, SEI and FET all lost between 3.6% and 4.7%.
Derivatives positioning
- Long crypto futures bets, or bullish positions on market direction, bore the brunt of liquidations over the past 24 hours, with nearly $300 million liquidated, compared with just $50 million in short positions.
- That's the fifth time in 10 days the longs have neared that level of punishment, an indication traders were predominantly positioned for the Iran war to translate into a price rally that has not materialized.
- XRP's price fell over 2.5% in 24 hours, while open interest in futures has increased by 2% to 1.95 billion XRP, the most since Feb. 2.
- That combination represents renewed investor interest in shorting the falling market. Negative cumulative volume delta and sub-zero funding rates suggest the same.
- Futures tied to bitcoin, solana, dogecoin and BNB displayed an XRP-like bearish profile.
- Memecoin SHIB has the largest negative open-interest–adjusted cumulative volume delta among major tokens, signaling aggressive derisking, or shorting, by traders.
- Canton Network's CC token stood out with positive funding rates and an increase in futures OI, both signaling growing demand for bullish exposure.
- Bitcoin and ether’s 30-day implied volatility indices, BVIV and EVIV, continued to drop despite weak spot prices, suggesting that traders aren't panicking yet and do not anticipate a turbulent selloff.
- On Deribit, bitcoin options worth over $15 billion expired early Friday. So, the supposed expiry-related price magnet of $75,000 is no longer valid, which opens doors for deeper declines amid a worsening macro outlook.
- Bitcoin and ether puts are again trading at 6 to 8 volatility premium to calls across all expirations, risk reversal shows. It indicates sticky demand for downside protection.
Token talk
- The altcoin market showed its fragility again on Friday, failing to cling on to key levels of support in a low-liquidity trading environment.
- The CoinDesk Computing Select Index (CPUS) was the worst-performing benchmark, tumbling by 2.3% while the bitcoin-dominant CoinDesk 20 (CD20) dropped 1.2%.
- One token that bucked the bearish trend was ONDO, which rose after Ondo Finance, an asset management company, said it agreed to tokenize five Franklin Templeton exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and bring them to the Ondo Chain.
- The token is up by more than 8% in the past 24 hours, although it gave back some of those gains since midnight UTC.
- The average relative strength index (RSI) across all crypto tokens remains neutral despite the selloff, suggesting further declines are likely on Friday.
