Why Bitcoin Is Falling Despite Progress on a US Government Shutdown Deal

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While the crypto market is sinking to its lowest today, the US lawmakers and the White House are moving closer to a deal to avert a partial government shutdown, offering a measure of relief to markets after a turbulent week. Senate leaders confirmed that a bipartisan framework is in place, though the agreement still requires key congressional votes before the current funding deadline expires on Friday night.

President Donald Trump said negotiations with Congress are progressing, warning that another prolonged shutdown would be harmful to the economy. While his remarks eased some immediate concerns, investors remain cautious as the legislative process enters its final and most uncertain stage.

Liquidity Pressures Hit Crypto and Risk Assets

The political uncertainty has coincided with mounting pressure across risk assets, particularly in crypto markets. Bitcoin slipped into the low $80,000 range this week, while US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have seen nearly $1 billion in net outflows. Market participants say the weakness reflects tightening liquidity rather than a breakdown in confidence toward digital assets.

Analysts point to the rapid expansion of the US Treasury’s cash balance, which has drained liquidity from financial markets. When the Treasury General Account rises, risk assets typically come under stress, with crypto often reacting first. On-chain data shows large Bitcoin holders remain mostly inactive, supporting the view that recent selling is driven by macro liquidity conditions rather than fear.

Safe Havens Swing Amid Policy and Geopolitics

Traditional markets have also experienced sharp moves. Gold and silver, which rallied earlier this year on safe-haven demand, pulled back as investors adjusted positions. Silver has entered deeper correction territory, while gold briefly dipped below key psychological levels before stabilizing.

Geopolitical tensions have further complicated the outlook. Renewed foreign policy uncertainty, including heightened rhetoric around Iran, has added to market unease and contributed to short-term volatility across commodities and currencies.

Uncertainty Still Rules the Outlook

Even if lawmakers succeed in passing a funding bill, analysts caution that uncertainty is unlikely to fade quickly. Historically, government shutdown risks tend to increase volatility rather than set a clear market direction, particularly for Bitcoin. With liquidity conditions tightening and geopolitical risks elevated, both traditional and digital asset markets remain highly sensitive to political and macroeconomic developments.