JST Technical Analysis Jan 21

Volume story – what participation tells us about conviction

Volume Profile and Market Participation

JST’s 24-hour volume was realized at the 4.48 million dollar level. This volume indicates moderate participation during a period when the price recorded a 3.95% increase. When evaluating market participants’ conviction (determination), examining the volume profile is critically important. The volume profile shows how much trading occurred at specific price levels, revealing elements such as value area and point of control (POC – control point).

In the daily timeframe, JST’s volume profile shows a value area concentrated around $0.04. The POC level sits around approximately $0.0407, which overlaps with one of the recent supports (71/100 score). Compared to average volume (assuming the last 7-14 day average is in the 3-5M$ range), the current volume is slightly above but not explosive. This may not be sufficient for a healthy uptrend; as strong rises expect volume to be 50-100% higher. Market participation appears retail-heavy – large block trades are limited. If volume increase remains weak as price rises, it signals unsustainable momentum. Conversely, low volume during declines is a supportive sign.

Accumulation or Distribution?

Accumulation Signals

The accumulation phase is when big players (smart money) quietly buy, providing hidden clues in volume. The following signals support accumulation in JST: Price holding above EMA20 ($0.04) with low-volume consolidations observed. Particularly around the $0.0419 support (80/100), holding without volume increase is a classic accumulation pattern. RSI at 58.49 is neutral, no overbought – this suggests an environment where big players are building positions. In MTF context (1D/3D/1W), there are 12 strong levels and supports dominate in lower timeframes (1D: 3S/2R). Price rising without upward volume spikes increases the likelihood of stealth accumulation. In healthy accumulation, volume gradually increases on upticks and dries up on downticks – JST partially matches this.

Distribution Risks

Distribution, on the other hand, is the phase where big players sell to retail, evident through high volume participation + price resistance. Risks in JST are as follows: Supertrend bearish and $0.05 resistance strong. Volume does not sufficiently support the 3.95% rise – like a trap rally before healthy distribution. In higher timeframes, resistances dominate (3D:1S/3R, 1W:3S/5R), volume increase below POC could signal distribution. If $0.0434 (81/100) is not broken and volume divergence forms (price up, volume down), selling pressure may come. Attention: Resistance tests without sudden spikes above average volume raise fakeout risk.

Price-Volume Alignment

Does volume confirm price action? JST is in an uptrend (+3.95%) but volume is moderate – no full alignment. In a healthy rise, volume on up candles should be 1.5-2 times that of up candles; here it’s balanced. MACD histogram neutral at zero, RSI at 58 – no volume divergence but confirmation weak. Low volume in declines is bullish, high is bearish. In recent data, volume dried up on $0.0407 support tests – bullish confirmation. However, if volume increases at $0.0434 resistance, rejection expected. Unhealthy volume: Price up, volume down (momentum loss); JST shows a slight tendency. Educational note: Volume exposes price’s “lies” – rallies without spikes usually end in correction.

Big Player Activity

Big player (institutional) activities are detected through abnormal volume blocks and profile shapes. In JST, clear block trades are limited, but thick volume layers in the $0.04 value area – potential institutional rest. POC defense strong, a level smart money watches. No selling traces in upper tails (high-volume wicks) for distribution. Healthy pattern: Volume increase in low timeframe up moves, stability in higher TF. In JST, 1W resistances (5R) dominant, big players may be accumulating short positions – not definitive, pattern-based only. No retail frenzy (RSI neutral), implying institutional dominance. Watch: Sudden 2-3x volume spikes as reversal signals.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $88,959 with -4.09% drop bearish (Supertrend bearish), dominance rising – caution for altcoins. JST shows relative strength against BTC (+3.95 vs BTC down), decoupling in early stage. If BTC cannot break $88,531 resistance ($88,259 support), selling wave may hit JST. Key BTC levels: Support break at $88,259/$86,637 leads to alt dump; above $90,873 resistance gives JST breathing room. Assuming correlation ~0.7-0.8, BTC downtrend limits JST uptrend – volume may weaken with BTC divergence. Details in JST Spot Analysis and JST Futures Analysis.

Volume-Based Outlook

Volume-based outlook: Short-term bullish bias ($0.0419-$0.0434 range), accumulation signals dominate but wait for confirmation. Bull target $0.0539 (low score, requires volume spike); bear $0.0306 if volume increases at resistance. Strategy: Long if holds above $0.0407 POC, short on volume down divergence. Overall: Stay cautious until volume confirms price – healthy uptrend needs 6-7M$+ volume. This analysis emphasizes what volume tells beyond price: Participation determines conviction.