World Cup Bets Become Prediction Markets’ Killer App In $5.6B Surge

The FIFA World Cup has turned football into the main force behind a $5.6B surge across prediction markets.

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World Cup Markets

The round of 16 is set to begin Jul. 4, and football has become the largest driver of activity on prediction platforms.

Data showed the tournament pushed total prediction market volume from $65M on Jun. 1 to a monthly high of $5.6B on Jun. 22.

The increase built through June. Trading volume reached $340M on Jun. 8, shortly before the World Cup began, then climbed to $2.2B on Jun. 15 after 15 matches had been played.

That stretch included the United States’ 4-1 win over Paraguay in Los Angeles. By Jun. 22, after 42 games, CryptoRank said volume had reached $5.6B.

The figure eased slightly by Jun. 29, when about $5.4B in trades was recorded.

CryptoRank said in a Jul. 2 post on X that Kalshi accounted for much of the June activity. Its dashboard showed open interest at $1.84B, with about $1.45B on Kalshi and $390M on Polymarket.

During the previous week, Kalshi’s open interest stayed near $1B. Polymarket peaked at $475M on Jun. 30, the day Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands were knocked out.

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Prediction Market Shift

BitMart pointed to the same pattern on its own platform as football pulled new users into event-based trading.

The exchange said its monthly prediction market volume rose 1,500% from May after the World Cup began. Active users increased 4.6 times, while completed orders rose nearly ninefold.

BitMart said nearly 44% of newly registered users placed their first trade through prediction markets. Football markets drew many of those users before some moved into crypto price predictions.

The exchange also said centralized platforms have captured much of the traffic because they are easier to use than on-chain prediction products. Those products can require private keys, gas fees and several contract approvals.

The surge comes as several research institutions project global prediction market volume could reach $10B. That outlook depends on whether sports-driven demand holds after the World Cup.

Polymarket’s quieter month came as the company faced criticism. A Wall Street Journal investigation in June alleged Polymarket used staged winning bets in promotional videos. A separate dispute also drew attention after a user accused Polymarket of changing rules in a market tied to Strategy’s Bitcoin (BTC) sale. The dispute raised questions about how prediction markets settle contested outcomes.

Prediction markets were first built around politics, macroeconomic data and public events. The World Cup has shown that sports can now dominate the same infrastructure when global attention, simple outcomes and large fan bases arrive at once.

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