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Elon Musk's SpaceX sets the price of its Friday IPO on Nasdaq later today. While the company is currently valued at roughly $1.77 trillion, blockchain-based pre-IPO price discovery derivatives and prediction markets seem to think that's too low.
That gap is evident from three markets: Onchain perpetuals futures offered by Ventuals and trade.xyz, both running on Hyperliquid, and Polymarket's implied first-day close. These have all converged on the $1.8 trillion-$2.1 trillion range, according to data source Allium.
Right now, traders on Polymarket, a decentralized betting platform, assign a 64% chance that SpaceX will close its first trading day above a $2 trillion valuation. A close above $3 trillion? Polymarket gives a 5% chance.
In other words, the market expects a strong debut, but not a blowout.
For bitcoin traders, the IPO serves as a real-world test of the dominant narrative: that the offering has been draining risk capital from crypto, contributing to the recent price decline.
If that theory holds, capital should flow back into bitcoin and crypto once the IPO is out of the way and the initial allocation frenzy subsides. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
What’s trending
- Corporate bitcoin buying has collapsed from $500 million per day to almost negligible (CoinDesk): Bitcoin has lost buyers on two fronts. The exodus from spot ETFs as a catalyst for the recent bitcoin price swoon is well documented. Less discussed is the equally steep drop in buying by digital asset treasury companies.
- Stock futures rise as U.S. completes strikes against Iran: Live updates (CNBC): Stock futures rose Thursday as the U.S. said it completed its strikes against Iran, though Gulf countries still reported hostile activity. S&P 500 futures gained 0.72%, and Nasdaq 100 futures added 1.1%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.64%.
- BlackRock's income-paying bitcoin ETF nears launch at a fee that undercuts rivals (CoinDesk): The world's largest asset manager filed its fourth amendment with the U.S. SEC for the iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF with a sponsor fee of 0.65%.
- Singapore bank DBS to offer tokenized gold to retail customers (CoinDesk): DBS said it will list the product, called DBS Physical Gold Tokens, on its digibank platform and is also considering making it available on the DBS Digital Exchange for accredited investors and institutions.
Today’s signal
BTC vs Nasdaq futures. (TradingView)
The chart compares bitcoin’s daily price moves with Nasdaq-100 E-mini futures since March.
The strong positive correlation between the two broke down in May, as the Nasdaq rallied sharply while bitcoin fell. However, Nasdaq has turned lower this month, hinting at a potential realignment.
The key question is whether bitcoin can hold steady — having already absorbed significant losses — in the face of a potential Nasdaq selloff. Trading firm Wintermute noted last year that the correlation between the two assets is particularly strong during Nasdaq declines. If that dynamic still holds, BTC risks sliding below $60,000.
