Apple (AAPL) Stock: Is the Foldable iPhone the Catalyst Bulls Have Been Waiting For?

TLDR

• Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo expects the foldable iPhone to launch in Q4 2026, with only 500K–1M units shipped in Q3
• Total foldable iPhone shipments estimated at 7–8 million units in H2 2026
• Price tag expected to be $2,300–$2,500, with Kuo predicting it could sell out immediately
• AAPL rose 0.1% to $309 Monday; Jefferies flagged the stock may be “range-bound” near-term
• Wall Street consensus is “Moderate Buy” with an average price target of $314.85

Apple’s foldable iPhone is shaping up to be one of the most anticipated product launches in years, but getting your hands on one won’t be easy.

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of TF International Securities said Sunday that the foldable iPhone may be unveiled alongside other new models this fall, but preorders and sales could be pushed to Q4 2026 due to production constraints.

Apple stock was trading at $309 on Monday, up 0.1%, after closing Thursday up 4.8%. The stock sits near its 52-week high of $317.40.

Apple Inc., AAPL

Kuo estimates total foldable iPhone shipments in the second half of 2026 will come in at 7 to 8 million units. Just 500,000 to 1 million of those are expected in Q3.

That’s a tight supply window for what could be massive demand.

The expected price point of $2,300 to $2,500 is steep, but Kuo doesn’t think it’ll slow buyers down. He sees robust demand even at that level.

Kuo drew a comparison to the iPhone X launch in 2017, when Apple used a controlled, slow rollout to build buzz before scaling production. The foldable appears to be following that same script.

What Investors Are Watching

For investors, the real test comes later. Kuo says late 2026 and early 2027 is when “true demand” for the foldable can properly be assessed, once launch hype fades and supply improves.

Jefferies flagged Monday that AAPL may be “potentially range-bound” for now, as broader product demand remains hard to read ahead of the launch cycle.

Apple’s last earnings report showed $2.01 EPS, beating the $1.95 estimate, on revenue of $111.18 billion — up 16.6% year over year. The company also bumped its quarterly dividend to $0.27 from $0.26.

Institutional and Analyst Sentiment

On the institutional side, Realta Investment Advisors raised its Apple position by 3.0% in Q1, making AAPL its largest holding at 7.1% of its portfolio, worth roughly $20.46 million.

Analyst sentiment is broadly positive. Maxim Group lifted its price target to $350, while Robert W. Baird set a $310 target. DA Davidson and Rosenblatt held neutral stances with targets of $270 and $276.

The Wall Street consensus sits at “Moderate Buy” with an average target of $314.85.

On the insider side, CFO Kevan Parekh sold 1,534 shares in April at $275, and insider Ben Borders sold 1,274 shares in May at $290.

AAPL’s market cap currently stands at $4.53 trillion, with a P/E ratio of 37.32.

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