Galaxy Lowers CLARITY Act Passage Chances to 60% Amid Growing Time Constraints

Galaxy Digital said the Senate faces an increasingly crowded legislative schedule ahead of the November elections, leaving limited time to revise and advance a major cryptocurrency bill through Congress.

Galaxy Digital has reduced its expectations for the Senate to approve a crypto market structure bill before year-end, citing a rapidly narrowing timeframe for lawmakers to move the legislation forward.

“On May 22, we increased our projection for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 75%, compared with the 55% estimate released on the morning of the Senate Banking Committee’s May 14 markup,” Galaxy head of research Alex Thorn wrote in a note on Friday. “We have now revised that forecast down to 60%.”

Thorn said the legislation needs Senate approval before lawmakers begin their month-long August recess in late July, warning that “the window effectively closes” afterward. He also noted that major bills have rarely advanced in the period leading up to midterm elections, as legislators typically focus on campaign activities.

Several senators have continued to advocate for the chamber to advance the legislation after the House approved its own version, known as the CLARITY Act, last year.

The Senate Agriculture and Banking Committees have already approved their respective versions of the legislation, and the measure must now secure at least 60 votes on the Senate floor to advance without facing extended debate.

“For a 60-vote bill that still needs floor debate, an amendment process, reconciliation with the Senate Agriculture text, and then House action on the changes, Majority Leader [John] Thune realistically needs to schedule floor time at some point in July,” Thorn said.

“Anything later and the procedural steps do not fit before the recess,” he added.

Thorn said Galaxy also reduced its forecast because there is little evidence that the legislation or related negotiations have made meaningful progress. He added that disagreements over ethics and illicit finance provisions remain a major obstacle and continue to await resolution.

Galaxy Sees Upside if Senate Leaders Accelerate Bill Efforts

He added that Galaxy could raise its probability estimate if Senate leadership formally commits to advancing the legislation next month and lawmakers finalize the provisions needed to secure broader political support.

Galaxy’s updated forecast followed comments from JPMorgan analysts on Wednesday, who estimated that the CLARITY Act has less than a 50% chance of clearing Congress this year, pointing to the increasingly limited legislative schedule ahead of the elections.

Meanwhile, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said on Tuesday that he has become less confident about the bill’s chances of passing this year, noting that several Washington insiders he consulted estimated the probability of approval at between 5% and 30%.

Senator Cynthia Lummis, who leads the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets, has intensified her push for Senate approval of the legislation, publishing at least 15 posts on X about the measure since the start of June.

“The Clarity Act passed committee. The floor is next. We did not come this far to quit at the 5 yard line,” she posted on Sunday.

Lummis told CNBC on Wednesday that lawmakers involved in drafting the bill are working through several concerns, including ethics and illicit finance provisions, which could otherwise weaken support for the measure during a Senate floor vote.