Bitcoin Price Prediction. Options Expiry Nears As Price Compresses Below Key Fib Resistance

• BTC remains capped below the 0.382 Fib near $90,700, keeping rallies corrective.
• EMA stack and descending trendline continue to reinforce seller control.
• December 26 options expiry may trigger volatility as gamma pressure fades.

Bitcoin price today trades near $87,400 after another failed attempt to reclaim short-term resistance. Price remains pinned beneath a descending trendline and key Fibonacci retracement levels, keeping sellers in control as December 26 approaches. With major options expiry hours away, the market is tightening rather than breaking.

Fibonacci Levels Define The Battleground

On the daily chart, Bitcoin continues to respect the November breakdown structure. Price remains below the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near $90,700 and well under the 0.5 level at $93,800. These levels capped every recovery attempt throughout December.

The 0.618 retracement near $96,900 remains far above current price and marks the threshold for any meaningful trend reversal. Until that level comes back into play, upside moves remain corrective.

On the downside, the 0.236 retracement near $86,800 has acted as a near-term pivot. Buyers defended this zone multiple times, preventing a deeper slide toward the $80,600 swing low. That defense keeps Bitcoin range-bound rather than broken.

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EMA Stack Confirms Sellers Still Control Trend

Bitcoin trades below its 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs, all stacked bearishly between $88,700 and $101,500. Each rally into this EMA cluster has stalled, reinforcing the ceiling.

The 20-day EMA near $88,700 has become immediate resistance. Above it, the 50-day EMA at $92,900 and the 100-day EMA near $98,500 define the upper boundary of the current structure.

Supertrend remains firmly red, tracking near $95,900. That level aligns with prior breakdown resistance and confirms that trend control has not shifted back to buyers.

Descending Structure Keeps Pressure Intact

Bitcoin continues to print lower highs beneath a falling trendline drawn from the October peak near $123,000. That trendline now slopes through the $92,000 to $94,000 region.

Every bounce has failed beneath it. Until price can close above this descending resistance, sellers retain structural control. The recent price action shows compression rather than accumulation, with volatility narrowing inside the range.

The dominant short-term catalyst is the December 26 options expiry, with roughly $27 billion in open interest set to roll off. For most of December, dealer hedging pinned Bitcoin between $85,000 and $90,000.

That stabilizing effect weakens after expiry. With a put-call ratio near 0.38 and call open interest concentrated at higher strikes, directional movement becomes more likely once gamma exposure decays.

Historically, this setup favors expansion rather than continuation of chop. Direction will depend on whether spot demand steps in as derivatives pressure fades.

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Spot Demand Has Softened But Not Collapsed

ETF flows have cooled compared to earlier in the year, but they remain structurally positive. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed over $57 billion in cumulative inflows since launch, with BlackRock’s IBIT ranking among the top inflow leaders of 2025.

Despite recent price weakness, institutional positioning remains intact. Surveys show over 80 percent of institutional investors plan to increase crypto exposure, with Bitcoin still the primary allocation.

Corporate Treasuries And Miners Shape Supply

Corporate Bitcoin accumulation has slowed in the fourth quarter, but holdings remain substantial. Public companies now control roughly 1.3 million BTC, led by Strategy Inc’s 628,946 BTC position.

At the same time, miners are emerging as resilient holders. Network hash rate dipped roughly 4 percent in December, easing sell pressure from high-cost operations. Historically, declining hash rates have preceded positive medium-term returns as inefficient supply exits.

Bitcoin’s supply profile remains tight. Daily issuance sits near 450 BTC, while institutional demand over the past year has absorbed multiples of that output.

Outlook. Will Bitcoin Go Up?

Bitcoin is approaching a pressure release.

• Bullish case: A post-expiry move above $91,000 flips short-term momentum and opens a path toward $94,000 and $98,000. Reclaiming the descending trendline would confirm trend repair.
• Bearish case: Failure to hold $85,000 after options expiry exposes $82,000 and risks a retest of $80,600.

Bitcoin is compressing under resistance, not collapsing. Options expiry will remove the pin. The next move will decide whether December ends with continuation or reversal.

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