2025 was a paradoxical year for Bitcoin. K33 Research highlighted that while the cryptocurrency’s fundamentals strengthened significantly, BTC underperformed most major asset classes, including equities and gold. Several factors contributed to this divergence.
Source: K33 Research
Long-term holders sold portions of their holdings, realizing profits after years of accumulation. Speculative bubbles and leverage events created temporary imbalances and persistent low volatility, coupled with subdued market enthusiasm, limited rally conditions.
These dynamics created a disconnect between price and fundamentals, which K33 notes is uncommon in Bitcoin’s history.
Despite significant institutional integration and regulatory progress, the market did not immediately reflect these gains in BTC’s price, suggesting a latent opportunity rather than inherent weakness.
Also Read: Decreased Bitcoin Hashrate Indicates Imminent Price Rise
Institutional adoption and regulations continued on a positive trajectory throughout 2025. The United States introduced a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, making it clear that Bitcoin is viewed as a highly valued asset on an institutional basis.
Regulations were on an upward trajectory, particularly in major areas of legislation on stablecoins passed in the United States and crypto regulations introduced in the European Union.
Source: K33 Research
Conventional banks and financial institutions began including Bitcoin in their portfolios and lending strategies.
State pension funds and large endowments started investing in BTC, which indicated a collective shift in mindset. These trends indicate that the viewing of cryptocurrencies as a conventional financial system component is on the increase.
It is safe to say that HOLDER behavior contributed to the market in 2025. Approximately 20% of all BTC that had been stored for more than two years was reactivated through long-term holders selling some of their holdings.
This led to a minor dip in price but caused less concentrated ownership of BTC on the market, thus lessening the possibility of a major sale in the future.
Moving forward, for 2026, K33 Research expects the year to be more favorable for Bitcoin. There appears to be an opportunity to buy due to the disconnect between market pricing and fundamentals.
Source: K33 Research
With monetary policies remaining accommodative, more clarity emerging for regulations, and increased availability of access via ETFs or retirement accounts, there may be demand sources forthcoming.
Source: K33 Research
With reduced outflows from long-term holders, BTC may outperform stocks and gold, contrary to 2025 trends.
Also Read: Bitcoin Price Stalls Near 4-Hour Moving Averages During Supply Rotation Phase


