SOL: Rise or Fall? January 15, 2026 Scenario Analysis

SOL is standing at a critical crossroads around $145. While the short-term uptrend continues, mixed indicators like the MACD’s bearish signal and Supertrend resistance make both scenarios possible. Nearby support and resistance levels carry the potential for a breakout in either direction; traders should stay prepared by monitoring triggers.

Current Market Situation

SOL’s current price is at the $145.03 level, showing a slight 0.52% increase over the last 24 hours. The daily range was between $143.21 – $148.44, and trading volume is solid at 5.30 billion dollars. The overall trend is classified as an uptrend, but technical signals paint a mixed picture.

RSI is at 57.41 in the neutral zone, with no overbought or oversold conditions. The MACD histogram is negative and indicates bearish momentum. The price is trading above EMA20 ($143.60), which is a short-term bullish sign. In contrast, Supertrend is bearish and highlights the $152.50 resistance. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 16 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 3 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 4 supports/3 resistances on 3D, and 3 supports/3 resistances balance on 1W. Critical support is at $144.07 (strength score 66/100), resistances at $145.23 (75/100) and $148.61 (74/100). Market news flow is calm, indicating that technical levels will be decisive.

This setup offers traders opportunities in both directions. While a bullish breakout is possible with the strength of the uptrend, bearish indicators increase the downside risk. Below, we examine each scenario in detail so readers can conduct their own analysis.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How Does This Scenario Unfold?

For the bullish scenario, the current resistance level at $145.23 must first be clearly broken. If this level, a strong pivot in short-term formations, is supported by increased volume, momentum will accelerate. An hourly or 4-hour close above $145.23 would be the first confirmation signal. Next, movement toward the $148.61 resistance is expected; here, Supertrend’s $152.50 resistance could be tested.

RSI rising above 60 and the MACD histogram approaching zero could create bullish divergence in the indicators. A 20-30% increase in volume would confirm the uptrend’s continuation. From an MTF perspective, holding the 1W timeframe supports (around the 140-142 band) is essential. If the price remains above EMA20 and a strong green body forms on the daily candle, the scenario strengthens. This breakout would carry the short-term uptrend into the 3D timeframe and trigger a broader rally. Traders should wait for a retest (pullback) of $145.23 to avoid false breakouts.

Educational note: In breakout scenarios, volume and close confirmation are critical. Historically, SOL has made 8-12% impulsive moves in similar resistance breakouts; however, watch for invalidation if the $144.07 support breaks.

Target Levels

First target $148.61, second $152.50 (Supertrend resistance). Main bullish target $157.41 (score 22/100), aligned with Fibonacci extensions and MTF resistances. Potential R/R ratio from current price around 1:1.5 (12 dollars up risk/8 dollars down). Extended targets could reach $165 if 1W uptrend is confirmed. Invalidation: Close below $144.07 invalidates the scenario and shifts to bearish.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario is triggered by rejection at the $145.23 resistance. An hourly close below this level is the first warning signal. If the MACD’s negative histogram deepens and RSI falls below 50, momentum turns bearish. Supertrend’s bearish signal is already active; a breakout could follow testing the $144.07 support.

Increased selling pressure in volume (25+% drop volume), drop below EMA20, and daily red candle formation heighten risks. Despite 4 support levels in the 3D timeframe in MTF, there is potential for a bearish breakdown in the overall balance. Market calm carries the risk of sudden liquidity hunts (stop hunts). If BTC or the broader crypto market sees a correlated drop, SOL’s volatility would amplify the move. Traders should monitor divergences (RSI falling while price rises).

Educational note: In bearish scenarios, volume spikes after support tests confirm breakouts. SOL has experienced corrections up to 10% in similar mixed signal setups in the past; invalidation occurs with a strong close above $145.23.

Protection Levels

First protection level $144.07 (main support). If broken, MTF supports drop to the 140-142 band. Main bearish target $132.81 (score 26/100), R/R around 1:1.2 (12 dollars down risk/10 dollars up). Extended levels could reach $128 if 1W downtrend forms. Invalidation: Close above $145.23 cancels the bearish scenario.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Decisive triggers: Volume profile (increasing buy volume for bull, sell volume for bear), indicator divergences (RSI/MACD), and candle formations (bullish engulfing vs. shooting star). The $145.23 pivot is key: On upside breakout, follow the SOL Spot Analysis page; on downside, SOL Futures Analysis. Prepare for RSI 60+ or 50-. Monitor BTC correlation (0.85%); if overall market is up, bull prevails; if down, bear. Daily closes provide confirmation.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

At this critical juncture for SOL, both scenarios are equally likely; traders should manage risk by monitoring levels and signals. Monitoring points: $145.23 (main pivot), $144.07 (support), volume changes, MACD crossovers. MTF balance increases volatility – adjust positions accordingly. This analysis is for educational purposes to encourage your own research. Markets are dynamic; visit spot and futures pages for updates.