Your crypto strategy should be about how much pain you can handle, not how much money you’ll make, Schwab finds

Charles Schwab’s latest research on digital assets argues that cryptocurrencies’ place in a portfolio hinges less on return forecasts and more on how much risk an investor is willing to take.

The report frames bitcoin BTC$68,662.96 and ether (ETH) as high-volatility assets that can quickly reshape a portfolio’s risk profile. “Any allocation to cryptocurrency is likely to increase a portfolio’s volatility,” Schwab writes, pointing to sharp historical swings in both assets. Bitcoin and ether have each suffered drawdowns of more than 70% in past cycles, far exceeding typical declines in stocks or bonds.

Because of that volatility, even small allocations can have an outsized effect. Schwab finds that just a low single-digit percentage in crypto can account for a meaningful share of total portfolio risk. In some cases, allocations as small as 1% to 3% can materially change how a portfolio behaves during market stress.

The report outlines two common approaches to adding crypto exposure. The first follows traditional portfolio theory, where allocations depend on expected returns, volatility, and correlations. But Schwab highlights a key weakness: assumptions about crypto returns vary widely among investors.

“Our research suggests that cryptocurrencies may not offer a large enough risk-adjusted return to justify a meaningful allocation if return expectations are less than 10%, even for an aggressive investor,” the report states. That makes portfolio outcomes highly sensitive to subjective forecasts. A modest change in expected returns can lead to large swings in recommended allocation.

The second method focuses on risk budgeting. Instead of guessing returns, investors decide how much total portfolio risk they want crypto to contribute. This approach shifts the conversation from performance to tolerance. Still, Schwab cautions that crypto’s volatility can exceed expectations, even within a defined risk budget.

“There is no ‘correct’ allocation to cryptocurrencies, and we believe the decision is largely a personal one,” the report notes. Factors such as investment horizon, familiarity with digital assets, and capacity for loss all play a role.

The firm also stresses that crypto remains a speculative investment. “Cryptocurrencies and crypto-related products are not suitable for everyone,” Schwab writes, citing risks including illiquidity, theft, and fraud. It can offer diversification and the potential for higher returns, but it behaves more like a high-risk satellite holding than a core allocation, the report concluded.